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Gambler's fallacy - Quiz
Contributed by: Maguire
  • 1. What happens to the gambler's fallacy if external factors change event probabilities?
A) It disappears immediately.
B) It may not hold.
C) It becomes a proven fact.
D) It becomes stronger.
  • 2. What is the primary belief associated with the law of small numbers?
A) Large samples are always random.
B) Large samples must be avoided.
C) Small samples must represent the larger population.
D) Small samples are always irrelevant.
  • 3. Who first proposed that the gambler's fallacy is a cognitive bias?
A) Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman.
B) Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung.
C) B.F. Skinner and Ivan Pavlov.
D) Isaac Newton and Albert Einstein.
  • 4. What is the name of the psychological heuristic linked to the gambler's fallacy?
A) Anchoring heuristic.
B) Affect heuristic.
C) Availability heuristic.
D) Representativeness heuristic.
  • 5. Why do people expect black to appear after a long run of red on a roulette wheel?
A) The wheel is programmed to balance out.
B) It is mathematically more likely.
C) The dealer intervenes to change the odds.
D) They believe it makes the sequence more representative.
  • 6. What is insensitivity to sample size?
A) Believing short random sequences should reflect longer ones.
B) The preference for longer gambling sessions.
C) Ignoring the outcome of large gambling events.
D) The inability to count coins.
  • 7. What is the clustering illusion?
A) Mistaking skill for luck.
B) Seeing random streaks as non-random.
C) Ignoring streaks entirely.
D) Only gambling in crowded casinos.
  • 8. What is the just-world fallacy in the context of gambling?
A) The belief that chance is a fair process that corrects itself.
B) The belief that the house always loses.
C) The belief that gamblers always win eventually.
D) The belief that the dealer is always honest.
  • 9. What is an internal locus of control in this context?
A) Believing gambling outcomes are the result of personal skill.
B) Feeling lucky when gambling.
C) Believing the casino controls all outcomes.
D) The ability to predict the next number.
  • 10. Why might someone with an internal locus of control be susceptible to the gambler's fallacy?
A) They have total control over the gambling device.
B) They are naturally better at math.
C) They reject the idea that chance overcomes skill.
D) They never lose at games.
  • 11. When creating a random-looking coin toss sequence, how do people typically behave?
A) They keep the ratio of heads to tails close to 0.5.
B) They refuse to include patterns.
C) They include long streaks of heads.
D) They choose only heads.
  • 12. According to the text, what can improve a player's win percentage?
A) Ignoring the gambler's fallacy.
B) Increased luck.
C) Playing for longer periods.
D) A change in game rules.
  • 13. What happens when teams learn about an inexperienced player's weaknesses?
A) The player's success may decrease.
B) The player's success increases.
C) The player wins more often.
D) The game becomes entirely random.
  • 14. In small samples, how do streaks behave compared to what people expect?
A) Streaks are only found in large samples.
B) Streaks are impossible in small samples.
C) Streaks occur less often than expected.
D) Streaks are more likely to occur than people expect.
  • 15. What is the 'inverse gambler's fallacy' as described by Ian Hacking?
A) Assuming a high-probability event implies no previous trials.
B) Ignoring the outcome of the first dice roll.
C) Assuming the next flip must be heads after a streak of tails.
D) Assuming a single low-probability event implies many previous trials.
  • 16. Are 21 heads and 20 heads followed by a tail equally likely?
A) No, the tail is more likely
B) The probability cannot be determined
C) No, the 21 heads is more likely
D) Yes
  • 17. What theorem is mentioned to explain why the likely outcome of each flip remains 1/2?
A) Pythagorean theorem
B) The Central Limit Theorem
C) The Law of Large Numbers
D) Bayes' theorem
  • 18. What is the probability of at least one win in 16 rolls of a 16-sided die?
A) 50%
B) 93.75%
C) 64.39%
D) 6.25%
  • 19. In 1796, who described the gambler's fallacy in the context of childbirth?
A) Isaac Newton
B) Monte Carlo
C) Pierre-Simon Laplace
D) Tom Stoppard
  • 20. On what date did the famous roulette incident at the Monte Carlo Casino occur?
A) September 18, 1913
B) August 18, 1923
C) July 18, 1913
D) August 18, 1913
  • 21. In a deck of 52 cards, what is the probability of drawing a second ace after the first ace is removed?
A) 4/52
B) 3/51
C) 3/52
D) 4/51
  • 22. Which game is mentioned as utilizing card counting due to non-independent events?
A) Roulette
B) Blackjack
C) Poker
D) Baccarat
  • 23. What mathematical approach suggests that outcomes occurring frequently in observed data are likely to recur if a process is potentially biased?
A) Statistical permutation
B) Linear regression
C) Bayesian inference
D) Geometric progression
  • 24. What is the counterpart to the gambler's fallacy mentioned in the text?
A) Positive recency fallacy
B) Retrospective fallacy
C) Hot-hand fallacy
D) Economic bias fallacy
  • 25. What does the text suggest about the relationship between gambler's fallacy and hot-hand fallacy?
A) One construct might be responsible for both
B) The hot-hand fallacy is a type of gambler's fallacy
C) They are only exhibited in financial markets
D) They are completely unrelated cognitive biases
  • 26. In the 2010 study by Huber, Kirchler, and Stockl, what percentage of participants chose the expert's opinion again after the expert was correct?
A) 78%
B) 100%
C) 57%
D) 24%
  • 27. Which brain network is activated after a riskloss?
A) Frontoparietal network
B) Occipital lobe
C) Temporal lobe
D) Cerebellum
  • 28. What is the relationship between amygdala activity and the gambler's fallacy?
A) Negatively correlated
B) Positively correlated
C) Directly proportional
D) No correlation
  • 29. The gambler's fallacy relies heavily on which part of the brain?
A) Caudate
B) Amygdala
C) Prefrontal cortex
D) Ventral striatum
  • 30. What is the primary responsibility of the prefrontal cortex?
A) Reflexive movement
B) Sensory processing
C) Affective decision-making
D) Executive, goal-directed processes
  • 31. Which brain structure controls the desire to continue gambling?
A) Prefrontal cortex
B) Frontoparietal network
C) Striatum
D) Amygdala
  • 32. What learning method does the striatum support?
A) Pavlovian classical conditioning
B) Choice-outcome contingency
C) Abstract reasoning
D) Observational learning
  • 33. In individuals with the gambler's fallacy, what is impaired?
A) Language processing
B) Physical coordination
C) Choice-outcome contingency method
D) Memory recall
  • 34. What concept refers to the belief that the probability of an outcome decreases after a streak of that outcome?
A) Negative recency effect
B) Positive reinforcement
C) Gambler's acceleration
D) Representativeness heuristic
  • 35. What percentage of 5th graders in the Fischbein and Schnarch study exhibited the negative recency effect?
A) 10%
B) 35%
C) 50%
D) 20%
  • 36. How many college students in the Fischbein and Schnarch study exhibited the negative recency effect?
A) None
B) 15%
C) 10%
D) 5%
  • 37. What term do Roney and Trick use to describe the process that contributes to the gambler's fallacy?
A) Randomization
B) Grouping
C) Segregation
D) Sequencing
  • 38. What factor makes it difficult to study the gambler's fallacy in loan officers?
A) Monetary incentives
B) Personal bias
C) Lack of experience
D) Government regulations
  • 39. Non-incentivized loan officers are how much less likely to approve a loan after approving one for the previous client?
A) 1.3%
B) 20%
C) 8%
D) 5.5%
  • 40. What type of lottery did Dek Terrell examine in his 1994 study?
A) Private charity lottery
B) Scratch-off lottery
C) Pari-mutuel lottery
D) State-run fixed odds lottery
  • 41. Following a win, how long does it take for lottery number selection popularity to recover according to the general effect described?
A) Three months
B) Three days
C) Two months
D) Six months
  • 42. What does the text identify as a monetization scheme that uses random contents set by rarity metrics?
A) Subscription fees
B) Direct currency purchases
C) Loot boxes
D) In-game advertisements
  • 43. Since approximately what year have loot boxes faced scrutiny from governments and advocates?
A) 2020
B) 2018
C) 2015
D) 2010
  • 44. What mechanism is used in some games to increase the odds of a high-rarity item after a string of failures?
A) Reward-multiplier
B) Pity-timer
C) Drop-accelerator
D) Luck-booster
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